Exactly one year ago, I wrote a column entitled “Kasich is Good Bet for 2016 Ticket” and was greeted by guffaws by a number of readers.
Well, that was before Cleveland was awarded the GOP convention and Kasich rolled to a 65-35 rout of his inept Democratic gubernatorial opponent who, deservedly, shall remain nameless. Each of these occurrences only enhance Kasich’s chances of gaining the nomination.
As of now, it appears that the quest for the GOP’s top spot could initially involve as many as 15 candidates – a veritable witches brew made up mostly of wackos, retreads and wannabees that may not reach the surreal freak-show level of the 2012 field but still has the potential for world-class weirdness. (Case in point: Sarah Palin has recently confessed that she is “seriously interested” in a 2016 run.)
Despite the large field, it’s clear that the GOP primary season will ultimately whittle down to — as it invariably does — a final-two choice between a so-called “moderate” Republican and one from the more extreme “Tea-vangelist” wing of the party. Whoever wins this race will be the person who can blur these distinctions and cross these battle lines a bit, something Kasich may be able to accomplish better than almost anyone now being considered.
Falling into the category of “moderate Republican,” Kasich will have — at this time — competition for this designation from Jeb Bush, Mitt Romney, Chris Christie and Scott Walker. (Note: I have eliminated Louisiana governor Bobby Jindal from this list due to the fact that anyone who both looks like Pinocchio and possesses the same relationship with the truth as does the wooden one is going nowhere fast.)
Jeb Bush certainly has the capacity to raise money, but there is still so much baggage that goes along with the Bush name that the former Florida governor will have a primary minefield to go through and should fall by the wayside fairly quickly, like reverse-mortgager Fred Thompson did in 2008. As far as Mitt Romney goes — which won’t be very far — even I don’t believe the GOP is stupid enough to turn to this two-time loser as its standard bearer.
The surgically slimmed Christie’s presidential ambitions have gone – via BridgeGate – the way of the lead balloon, making it extremely difficult for the still-rotund bully boy to raise much early money. Wisconsin’s sniveling governor Scott Walker is – at best – an anti-union, one-trick, pony who is still wet behind the ears and has little more on his resume than a narrow avoidance of being recalled.
And then we have the wackos: the aforementioned Palin, Rick Perry (with or without glasses), the jolly fire-breather Mike Huckabee, the altar-boy-for-life Rick Santorum, the clinically insane Ted Cruz and the Atlas-Shrugging Rand Paul.
It’s almost impossible to see — short of a collective death wish — the GOP nominating anyone from the above quintet, though perhaps the party may throw its hands up and pick, say, Perry and just let the whole thing go up in flames like it did with the selection of Barry Goldwater in 1964.
So that brings us back to strong likelihood that, once again, a so-called moderate Republican will head the ticket come 2016 convention time. And that brings us back to Kasich, who will be the presiding convention host and reigning chief executive of, arguably, the most important swing state in the country – the one that no Republican has ever won the presidency without carrying.
In my opinion, Kasich is the only Republican candidate who can beat Hillary Clinton in Ohio. He has a spotless political record (having never lost an election); both executive and legislative experience (he served 20 years in the House of Representatives); and possesses the kind of “folksy” pragmatism that Ohioans love (his willingness to accept Medicaid expansion for his state has sent his approval ratings soaring and would be a winning policy position in a national election).
Of course, Kasich would have to get through the Republican primaries (no easy task) but so would everyone else in the field. On the GOP’s number one litmus-test issue, abortion, Kasich is unyieldingly pro-life. On the other hot-button issues – gay marriage and immigration – his positions have been “evolving” back and forth enough to supply him with enough wiggle room on the campaign trail to wriggle through the process with minimal damage from the hard right.
Though doomed from the start, Kasich’s recent dog and pony tour of western states attempting to gin up support for a balanced budget amendment has enabled him to toss out enough red meat to the Republican base to cast himself as a noble – though Quixotic – fighter for limited government.
Kasich doesn’t have to announce his candidacy early on and can wait until it becomes obvious that Bush and Romney are going nowhere. Then he can fight with Walker, Christie and whomever for the big donors looking for a moderate candidate and fearing the ascendance of a loony.
Don’t bet against Kasich winning that fight.
[Photo: Siemens PLM Software (Flickr)]
Larry Durstin is an independent journalist who has covered politics and sports for a variety of publications and websites over the past 20 years. He was the founding editor of the Cleveland Tab and an associate editor at the Cleveland Free Times. Durstin has won 12 Ohio Excellence in Journalism awards, including six first places in six different writing categories. He is the author of the novel The Morning After John Lennon Was Shot. LarryDurstinATyahoo.com