DURSTIN: Kasich is Good Bet for 2016 Ticket

By Larry Durstin

A Democratic gubernatorial candidate has not beaten an incumbent Ohio Republican governor in Ohio since the 1950s.  And it’s not going to happen this fall — despite Cuyahoga County executive Ed FitzGerald’s grasping-at-straws maneuver of trying to scare off Kasich voters by claiming that the governor will not serve out his term because he plans to run for president in 2016.

First of all, history has shown that the electorate really doesn’t care about this issue (just ask voters in Arkansas in 1990 and Texas in 1998 who were bombarded with similar charges against Bill Clinton and George W, yet elected each by a landslide); and secondly, any talk of Kasich running for president does nothing but elevate his stature, excite those who back him and generate significantly more fundraising – much of it from out of state – for him than he really needs to win this November.

By utilizing such a counterproductive tactic, FitzGerald is simply underlining the hollowness of his own candidacy, kind of like Democrat Tim Hagan did in 2002 when he announced that he didn’t have enough money to run a big-time campaign against incumbent governor Bob Taft and instead was putting up a website that parodied the AFLAC duck commercials and featured something called “Taft-Quack.”

Personally, I would like nothing more than to see a Democratic governor in Ohio, especially because of what he/she could ideally achieve in terms of enhancing workers’ rights and preserving women’s reproductive options – the two most important issues for me. But I’m also a seasoned political analyst who prides himself on being able to objectively read the writing on the wall and not spin it with wishful thinking.

That said, I must admit that Kasich is in a great position to either win the 2016 Republican nomination or end up in the second slot on the GOP ticket. It’s clear that the Republican primary season will ultimately come down to a final-two choice between a so-called “moderate” Republican and one from the more extreme “Tea-vangelist” wing of the party. Whoever wins will be the person who can blur these distinctions and cross these battle lines a bit, something Kasich may be able to accomplish better than almost anyone now being considered.

With the former “moderate” front-runner Chris Christie’s presidential ambitions having gone the way of a lead balloon, the door has opened for other GOP moderate contenders, especially those from the ranks of governors, to step into the void left by the rotund bully boy. And it’s difficult to come up with someone better positioned than Kasich to assume that role.

Many people forget how long Kasich has been something of a darling with the GOP. He served in Congress from 1983-2001, spending much of that time as chairman of the budget committee, where he was viewed by many — fairly or unfairly — as a folksy economic expert with a feel for the middle class. Bob Dole even considered him for the vice presidential spot in 1996.

His tenure at Lehman Brothers will surely provide opponents with plenty of fodder for criticism, yet there doesn’t seem to be any deep, dark scandal related to his political or business career. In the 2010 gubernatorial race, incumbent Ted Strickland tried to kill Kasich for his role in the demise of Lehman, but got nowhere with it – even in a year when the depth of the financial crisis was still fresh in voters’ minds. Also, his six-year stint as host of Fox’s “Heartland with John Kasich,” has further nationalized his brand.

As Ohio governor, Kasich deftly recovered from the Senate Bill 5 debacle and has made sensible moves such as accepting Medicaid for his state, speaking constructively on immigration reform, working with Cleveland mayor Frank Jackson on public school issues and criticizing the GOP for conducting a “war of the poor.”

Certainly, he will take quite a bit of heat from the right for these issues, but any “moderate” GOP candidate is going to have to overcome – to a greater or lesser extent – similar obstacles in similar areas.

The savvy Kasich has never lost an election, has a current approval rating in the mid-50s and possesses the rumpled plain-spokenness that plays well here in the Midwest and certainly contrasts nicely to Mitt Romney’s rich-guy robot persona that failed so miserably in 2012. He will score a relatively easy victory this fall (around 53-47), have a ton of financial support for a 2016 run and, I’m convinced, has as good a chance as anyone else in the Republican field to be on the GOP ticket come 2016.

 

Larry Durstin is an independent journalist who has covered politics and sports for a variety of publications and websites over the past 20 years. He was the founding editor of the Cleveland Tab and an associate editor at the Cleveland Free Times. Durstin has won 12 Ohio Excellence in Journalism awards, including six first places in six different writing categories. He is the author of the novel The Morning After John Lennon Was Shot. LarryDurstinATyahoo.com

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