What Do Primary Winners and Losers Tell Us About Marcia Fudge’s Influence? By Ellen Connally

Barring some unforeseen accident of fate, come November Marcia L. Fudge will be reelected to the House of Representatives, representing the 11th Congressional District of Ohio. Fudge gained the seat in 2008 after the untimely death of Congresswoman Stephanie Tubbs Jones. Having previously served as Tubbs Jones’ chief of staff and mayor of Warrensville Heights, Fudge emerged as the heir apparent to the congressional seat while Tubbs Jones’ body lay in state.

Fudge is now running for her sixth term, having never faced serious opposition. In each of her reelection bids she has averaged just over 80% of the vote. But a careful review of the election returns shows a pattern of declining support for Fudge, as represented by her steadily increasing undervote.

For those who are not aware of the term undervote, it refers to the number of people who voted in an election but selectively skipped a race. Some undervote can arguably be attributed to the voter drop off that occurs when voters vote for the top of the ticket and stop voting — a phenomenon not unusual in presidential years. But when votes are cast in down ticket races and a particular race is skipped, voters are sending a message: “Even though you are unopposed, I’m not voting for you.”

If you look at the general election of 2014, Fudge garnered 81.5% of the vote or just over 123,000 votes in Cuyahoga County, with a undervote of 6700 votes. In the 2016 general election, a presidential year, Fudge again received 81% of 214,000 votes cast. But she had an undervote of just over 23,000 people — people who didn’t vote in her race.

If we look at last week’s May primary, Fudge received close to 59,000 votes, again 81% of the total votes cast, but her undervote was just over 10,000. What is interesting is that there were 427 voters who took the time to write in the name of another candidate. Several voters told me they wrote in some variation of “anybody but Marcia.” The actual names of the write-in candidates will be interesting, but not available until after the election is certified. I wonder how many votes Donald Duck and Mickey Mouse received.

Fudge attempted to show her political clout in the May primary when she ran her own candidate against incumbent State Senator Sandra Williams. Her personal rancor against Williams apparently arose when Williams threw her hat into the ring for the position of County Democratic Chair — an apparent no-no since Fudge had already selected a candidate for the post, freshman county councilperson and political novice Shontel Brown.

Fudge’s handpicked candidate to run against Williams was former Cleveland city councilman and defeated mayoral candidate Jeff Johnson. Johnson was not only defeated, he was shellacked by Williams who received 59% of the vote to Johnson’s 23%. The result drove spikes into Johnson’s already-sealed political coffin and showed that Fudge’s endorsement meant little to voters, especially when you see that Johnson, running for state central committee on his own merit won the seat with 53% of the vote.

During the same election cycle, Fudge drew the ire of local Democratic officials when she did a mailing touting the candidates she personally endorsed. The problem was that the piece led voters to believe that the candidates had received the imprimatur of the Democratic Party, which they had not. Party activist Marty Gelfand found the mailings so egregious that he filed a complaint with Ohio Democratic Chairman David Pepper, symbolic of the growing factionalization of the local party.

Fudge gave her endorsement to Rich Cordray for governor, although the county party made no endorsement in that race. While Cordray was the ultimate winner state wide, when the votes were counted in the 11th Congressional District, results showed that Dennis Kucinich carried the cities of Cleveland, Bedford, Bedford Heights, East Cleveland and Garfield — all cities in Fudge’s congressional district. So much for the power of a Fudge endorsement.

To the shock of most political pundits, Fudge’s candidate for judge of the Common Pleas Court, Deborah Turner, came out a winner. Although a Plain Dealer editorial asserted that Turner won because of Fudge’s support, a more realistic view of Turner’s victory would recognize the effect of the #MeToo movement and the women’s vote. Turner was the only woman in a seven-person race.

In another judicial race, Fudge endorsed Emily Hagan. She came out a winner. The fact that Hagan was the only woman in a three-person race and has a last name that has appeared on the ballot many times did more than Fudge’s endorsement to help her defeat her two opponents — one African American and one Hispanic. In two other judicial races, Fudge endorsed candidates Andrew Santoli and Andrea Nelson Moore. Fudge’s endorsement was not enough for these two candidates to overcome their opponents who both had well-known names and well-financed campaigns.

In the county council race for district 10, Fudge originally supported challenger Cheryl L. Stephens against incumbent Michael J. Houser. By election time, she was on the side of Houser. Stephens was victorious, winning 53% of the vote to Houser’s 47%.

The coattail effect is the term used by politicos to describe the ability of strong candidates at the top of the ticket to bring down ballot candidates into the winner’s circle. Based on the May primary and past election results, Fudge’s signature bomber jacket clearly has no coattails.

The late Louis Stokes retained this congressional seat from 1969-1999, when he voluntarily retired. Tubbs Jones held the seat until her untimely death. Both had a proven track record of affecting downticket races and over the years they were able to help fellow downticket Democrats, often providing enough of an edge to carry the day.

As the demographics of the 11th Congressional District change and the African-American base upon which Fudge has relied is diluted as the district is expanded into more homogeneous sections of Northern Ohio, Fudge’s job security could be in question. With her increasing undervote, her lack of coattail effect, and her thundering silence regarding the growing threats to our basic democratic freedoms by the Trump administration, an element of discontent continues to grow in the 11th congressional district, as evidenced by her undervote and quiet grumblings among both voters in general and party loyalists.

The last major issue that the Plain Dealer covered regarding Fudge was her outrage over fellow congresspeople who slept in their offices. In a world where residents of the 11th Congressional District face issues of homelessness, lack of health care, unemployment and underemployment, opioid addiction and a list of other concerns far too long to mention, one wonders why this would be an issue that the Congresswoman would take time to worry about.

The times they are a-changing, as was evident in the election of 2016. The old ways of running political campaigns have gone the way of the flip phone. There are no more reliable voters. Party faithful are not always so faithful, especially considering the dissension within the local party. Voters want to know what the candidates and elected officials have done for them lately. They want to see you in the district and hear a voice. Safe congressional seats can now change based on a tweet or an Instagram post.

Granted, Fudge has a hard act to follow, living in the shadow of both Louis Stokes and Stephanie Tubbs Jones. But she must realize that the aura of the mantel she adopted has evaporated as a new generation of voters goes to the polls. She must realize that it’s now 2018, not Warrensville Heights in 2000. Parades, a cadre of aging black clergy and staying holed up in Washington will not satisfy an increasing disgruntled electorate.

Traditionally, white voters go to the polls in primary elections in far higher numbers than black voters — Fudge’s base. A serious candidate — black or white — in a primary election could put Fudge’s true political strength to the test. Such an election would determine Fudge’s true staying power, separate and apart from the mantle of past representatives of the 11th Congressional District. The times, they are a-changing.

C. Ellen Connally is a retired judge of the Cleveland Municipal Court. From 2010 to 2014 she served as the President of the Cuyahoga County Council. An avid reader and student of American history, she serves on the Board of the Ohio History Connection, is currently vice president of the Cuyahoga County Soldiers and Sailors Monument Commission and treasurer of the Cleveland Civil War Round Table. She holds degrees from BGSU, CSU and is all but dissertation for a PhD from the University of Akron.

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2 Responses to “What Do Primary Winners and Losers Tell Us About Marcia Fudge’s Influence? By Ellen Connally”

  1. Demar L. Sheffey

    What would it take to beat Marcia Fudge in an election? The undervote is not enough to beat her. Any suggest?

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