The Circuitous Road to the White House

Hillary

The Circuitous Road to the White House: History Shows That Governors and Lawyers Have The Best Odds

[Written by C. Ellen Connally]

If a failed haberdasher from Missouri — Harry Truman — and a peanut farmer from Georgia — Jimmy Carter — can make it to the White House, what are the odds of a former Secretary of State — Hillary Clinton — and potentially, a sitting vice president — Joe Biden — achieving the same goal? Not as good as you might think.

The circuitous road to the White House has not always been easy. In the 19th century, the key to receiving a party nomination was control of votes and state party machines at the all-important national political conventions. With the rise of the state primary system, voters in the Iowa caucuses or a few yeas by some early voters in New Hampshire can be the deciding factors. In this age of social media, Instagrams and cell phone cameras, a presidential front runner can go from leader of the pack to the ranks of those who “also ran” quicker than you can say Gary Hart and Howard Dean.

Statistically, lawyers and governors have had the best chance of getting elected. Twenty-five of the 44 presidents have been attorneys and 23 have been governors of either a state or a territory. Both Clinton and Biden are lawyers but neither has been a governor — being married to a former governor doesn’t count.

The United States Senate would seem to be a great breeding ground for the presidency, and both Clinton and Biden have served there — but not so fast. The Senate has only a so-so record of producing presidents with just 16 of the 44 moving up from their august ranks to the White House. It was not until 1920, with the election of Ohioan Warren Harding, that a candidate went directly from the Senate to the White House. Only John F. Kennedy and Barack Obama have made the leap since then.

In the early days of our nation, the job of secretary of state was seen as a stepping stone to the presidency, but no more. The last secretary of state to be elected to the White House was James Buchanan in 1856! Only five other men who served has secretary of state were subsequently elected president — and it’s been a while — a long while. We’re talking Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, James Monroe, John Quincy Adams and Martin Van Buren.

The last sitting vice president to be elected to the presidency was George H. W. Bush in 1988, having served two terms as Reagan’s vice president. But, as with the secretaries of state, you have to go back to the early days of America to find a vice-president who directly from vice president to president. They are John Adams in 1796, Thomas Jefferson in 1800 and Martin Van Buren in 1836.

Vice President John Nance Garner’s oft quoted comment about the vice presidency not being worth a bucket of warm spit — he probably used another term — may be true if you look at in terms of winning the nomination and the ultimate prize. Thirteen former vice presidents have all made runs for the presidency, but only four have received major party endorsements — Richard Nixon, Hubert Humphrey, Walter Mondale and Al Gore and they all lost — at least the Supreme Court said that Gore lost. Only Nixon, who was not a sitting vice president, having served as VP under Eisenhower and lost to Kennedy in 1960, was subsequently elected president.

If being a governor or former governor gives a candidate an edge, the Republicans, statistically have a pretty good shot. Among their candidates there are there are four sitting governors Bobby Jindal (Louisiana), Chris Christie (New Jersey), John Kasich (Ohio) and Scott Walker (Wisconsin) and five former governors, Jeb Bush (Florida), Mike Huckabee (Arkansas), Rick Perry (Texas), George Pataki (New York) and James Gilmore (Virginia) and, still contemplating, Governors Bob Ehrlich of Maryland.

Will any of these factors play into the final decision of the voters in the forthcoming presidential primaries or ultimately in November of 2016? Probably not, but it’s interesting to consider the past and the circuitous road to the White House. The only two candidates that meet both criteria — governor or former governor and lawyer — are Chris Christie and George Pataki, and Pataki didn’t even made the cut for the debate. As the Republican field culls the herd and the Democratic field possibly increases by one, we have to wait and see if history repeats itself.

A hundred years ago, a divorced gambling saloonkeeper didn’t have much of a chance on the national scene. In the 1950s, people didn’t vote for Adlai Stevenson because he was divorced. In 2015 the frontrunner is a twice-divorced casino operator who has never been elected to a public office; whose companies have filed bankruptcy four times and who has changed parties four times! Who would have thunk it?????

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12 Responses to “The Circuitous Road to the White House”

  1. Hillary? well PROBABLY….NOMINEE. UNLESS something REALLY happens and SOMEHOW a DARK horse takes over aka MAYBE “BERNIE BUNCH”.
    Jeb!…. suspect Romneyesque Rehash moment there if gets nod. Just too much baggage, Name thing, Blame games,etc. “Royalty” thing which goes BACK FARTHER THEN EVEN CLINTONS (wow…TWENTY FOUR years on national stage. AND I was voter THEN too).
    Trump? Warped way HIT the right nerve,chord BUT HE aint running for GOVERNOR or a Senate gig.. YET…
    WEBB? Has balls,brains. IS one of contentious Electoral states he is from. VP slot? SECRETARY of STATE?
    BERNIE. I CAN sympathize,see appeal BUT HIS chances LONG even w/all the clamor,applause. POTENTIAL VP slot and way to wrap up Millenials? You tell me. HILLARY is the conservative,semi lame,steady state one while…. EDUCATION STUDENT loan thing…Well. $1 trillion. HOW much of THAT is viable,valuable,etc. vs. lackluster half baked schools,degrees that aint worth much,clutter up wall, or dresser drawer and semi pointless exercise in futulity… SOMETIMES comes back in a good way but wouldn’t count on THAT… LOT of that depends on 5 Ws’ of ones own experiences,etc.

    Repubs? NO idea…KASICH IS SMART,wily,explosive (MAYBE mellowing..is older),etc. BUT LONG shot. HE is something like a LBJ. VERY mixed ‘bag’ of it all as they say… REST? AINT gonna play well beyond certain point..LIMITS thou at to what ANY politico, other can do.

    Hot button issues? lets face it….Repubs anti abortion,etc. but THEY SURE as *$*@* don’t want to deal w/fallout of all those kiddies which in one shape or another WOULD have to deal with…Too contentious, too many problems. The wars,etc. SOON as can figure out IRAQ a win there SOMEHOW…. this unofficial THREE COUNTRY ‘solution’ w/us lending our air force,spy satellites, special ops, and all that to THEM for awhile.

  2. Put it THIS way….all have own takes on stuff,needs,preferences,experiences and let it go at that….I maybe a fool for what wrote above. Hillary IS in a bizarre spot but She more or less chugs along,does Her thing and We will ‘find out’. REpublicans? NO idea…I HONESTLY RIGHT NOW can NOT say WHAT will happen. PERRY seems to be running out of $…the HUCKABEES to SANTORUMS to other such always seem to crap out…guess so much for THOSE ‘values’ candidates. MAYBE just cant win over 1/3 to 2/3 of USA &/or potential donors, party hacks….or RNC delegates…

    Carly Fiorina…. THIS bizarre out of the purple blue haze of whatever as throws in OWN hat into crowded field pandering FIRST! FIRST! FIESTY FEMALE to carry the banner into the ring. OR something… MAYBE ferret out that female’s reasons. NO idea if some Silicon Valley broadside shot across the bow or WHAT this is…. JINDAHL is supposedly is or was SOME india American web tech head who is or seems to be badly captured by OWN voters, interests and HARDLY a ‘sell’ to REST OF AMERICA… take a REAL not too hard look and see what I mean….

    Rest? Hey….

    MAYBE only thing more lackluster is OWN OHIO DEMS…. ANYWAYS… HATED to bring THAT up but…thou SURE REPUBS will…THEY will sift thru it ALL AND make DEMS look like *$*@*((&*^%$!@#$%^&*()_+*I……. and some or ‘certain’ DEMS sure obliged AND DESERVE the derision,vitriol. Oh well HEY…. Hi there… NOTICE HOW some Names SURE disappeared… along with CUYAHOGA DEMS. I WONDER WHY… REPUBS fear *$*@ and had snipers on roofs THIS LAST wk during cattle call tv conference… MAYBE NOT only Ones who should be ‘worrying’.

    Local DEMS AND COUNTY gonna be quacking in boots, looling over shoulders, being good little Ole Boys n Girlz as TRY not to go to jail,investigated,heaved out of some position of power or spend all the time defending THEIR actions,decisions… maybe being a blank BUT calling it way see it….

  3. BURNOUT….

  4. 1) WEBB? COULD DO A LOT worse….Give ANYTHING to see HIS interaction w/LOCAL DEMS…HE may surprise Me and gets along w/Dem chair but REST of em? WHETHER HE does that or ANY of em is well up to them.

    2) O’MALLEY? ?! WHO I say?! THIS vague whatever lame ex Governor,mayor out of Maryland. Suspect HE is trying to move the needle as the old saying goes….
    3) LINCOLN CHALFEE………. a TRIPLE WHO ?! A WHAT?! PITY a guy with first name of a Dead Prez even if a revered One…GUESS WHO got ridiculed all the time… RHODE ISLAND ‘son’……

    I THINK that rounds out Dem crew…

  5. SURE REPUBS did THIS RNC here as way to dog out,stick it up rectum of Dems.

  6. Where art thou hagan,Sharen Neuhardt,Ed Fitzgerald,Mary Boyle,&Co. I don’t know what to say….Ok so HALF that crew got gerrymandered or done in by Cuyahoga County corruption mess and all that…or got old. OR got lucky,smart and retired at right time. NEUHARDT was one of those who took a H of a beating… lost like EVERY Congressional election….I don’t think EVER won ANY politico office but I COULD be wrong… Ok so 2010 to ’14 saw lot of stuff and THOSE races had WHOLE other gig going on….

  7. Seeing,reading rumblings about COUNTY MEDIA “PR” pros…. a WHAT WHO at WHAT KIND OF WAGE?! ….read whatever want to read into that. I MAY get flack SOMEDAY but NOTHING compared to BUDISH OR ones He picked to fill those ‘slots’. I CAN pic those ‘eye rolls’ and ‘knowing nods’ (FROM OWN county dem apparatus). HAS to be semi galling to DIMORA as HE sits there thou suspect RIGHT NOW HE is too busy staying good and going for early release. HALF dead anyways. LOST house,lost job,lost COunty pension, PAID LEGAL fees OUT the blank, lost reputation, MAYBE LOST HIS Mind, HAIR TURNED white, medical issues, pushing age 60,etc. SUSPECT HIS sentence will get in half or less…still a win. A 6 by 10 cell has a way of doing that… HE was a FOOL FOR TRUSTIING RUSSO to SOMEHOW cover up,forestall legal action…sooner or later… AND RUSSO WAS A AUDITOR!! IF ANYONE SHOULD know what not to do or expect….

    ONE thing some private firm…another THIS very public ‘gig’. MAYBE timing but the DIME SURE got dropped on THAT corrupt crew right about time contract for Med Mart was in all that contentious phase and well certain entities were busting folks ba*ls to get THAT ‘contract’ but HEY…AND WE went thru ALL THAT SHIT during THAt time frame… karma still came back and bit some of “THEM”. THEM selling off properties finally forced LOT of local powers that be to take a REAL HARD look at what have,can do and RESOLVE LOT of this BS that lingered forever and a day….

    MAYBE a 1980 or REAGAN was gonna occur ANYWAYS but semi sweet bitter pill when LOCAL big wig corporates semi did selves in except for defense,legal begal and medical related outfits…. TRW is sunning themselves NICELY out in Cali land last I heard… ARKON U? U tell me? RIght idea bout overspent. OR indicator of DEEPER issues far as education (or eds n meds R&D gig).

  8. NICE history lesson up there…….Hillary. WAS a lawyer. I THINK SHE let Her license lapse but I DONT know THAT for sure….NOT sure if Barack renewed His or not.

  9. The Rubios, Cruz’s,etc. I can pic this serenade thru Near West Side or WHATEVER….Outta be interesting… Can go thru the Westside markets of our fair city. Everyone else has…. can play with the South American spiders and gosh all knows what else crawling out of the banana boxes,etc.

  10. The stuff seen,heard,read,.witnessed is JUST soo SOMETHING and let it go at that…. CAN be SURE OF ONE thing… certain areas, streets are gonna have SUCH A HARSH REALITY CHECK writ large THINK the whole apparatus of Homie Land to Sheriff to every other law enforcement just relocated to Our Fair city…. FUNKY moment for Dear Mayor too considering…. time will tell if HE or rest smart far as ALL the efforts concerning ‘education’ thou SOMEHOW I THINK semi missed boat on being NEXT! Silicon Valley or whatever EVEN w/EUCLID HEALTHCARE CORRIDOR,etc. somehow lost on rest of city… Ok so some make $ as barbacks,strippers,taxi drivers,trash collectors and whatever else supporting all that….

    MORE and more gals (and some guys) going for nursing… arsonists and rest clean up bad sides of East side thou limits as to numbers of minority Yuppies out there… guess NEW parking for University Circle,etc. or web farms…Take wins were can.

  11. BIDEN? I WISH I was that smart, well dressed, healthy at THAT age. Hillary aint no chickie either. Omalley is like age 51 plus or minus. Repubs? NO idea…THEY have to work THEIR way thru THEIR crowded field. SURE LOT of wheeling,dealing tween NOW and THEN…..

    Suspect see the local Divide tween burbs and Cleveland thou even w/that THAT assumes clear, specific clear boundaries,etc. far as politics, demographics,etc.

  12. Cicero

    Hillary’s done. The scandals, coverups and FBI investigations just keep getting worse and worse. That leaves the Dems with Biden as their only chance.

    The Republicans? It’s anyone’s guess at this time.

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