What will the next presidency be like? This article attempts to make some of those determinations, based on what Donald Trump himself has said and his views as I understand them. My intent is to make reasonable predictions as to what the new administration might look like in terms of policy decisions.
The next administration will not be working in a vacuum. It will be working with other institutions such as Congress and the Supreme Court. As NPR correspondent Cokie Roberts said, “Millions of people remain the same. We have, as you well know, a civil service. And there are permanent government workers, somewhere around 2.8 million in the civilian government in addition to 4,000 people who get political appointments.”
TV news program 60 Minutes put it this way: “What can we expect from the next presidency? What we discovered in the president-elect’s first television interview as president-elect was that some of his signature issues at the heart of his campaign were not meant to be taken literally, but as opening bids for negotiation.”
Let’s explore the key issues facing the Trump White House and the possible actions that might be taken by the new administration.
1) Job Creation. Expect a revisit of NAFTA, currency regulations, free trade and tariffs, with the goal of making such agreements more beneficial to the United States, perhaps economic protectionism within limits. Expect the new president to demand that other countries follow the rules on tariffs, trade and currency agreements. “If he has the guts to take on corporate America, he’s got an ally,” said Senator Bernie Sanders.
Also, expect him to propose a big infrastructure plan, a stimulus plan of roads and bridges to create jobs and transition from an American manufacturing-based economy to a technology-based and service-oriented economy. “He’s mentioned a trillion dollars,” incoming Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) recently told an ABC News blog. “I told him that sounded good to me.” Democrats will be all about this, and hopefully so will Republicans.
2) Regulations. The new president may work toward loosening banking restrictions by amending the Dodd-Frank bill, perhaps by limiting regulations on community banks, those that lend to small businesses and individuals, while maintaining regulations on investment banks that deal with stocks, bonds and commodities. According to CNN Money, he has “signaled a desire to reverse rules that are seen as burdensome for community banks, freeing them up to give more loans.” Steve Mnuchin, selected to head the U.S. Treasury Department, told CNBC last week that the new administration’s No. 1 regulatory priority will be to “strip back parts of Dodd-Frank that prevent banks from lending.”
3) Taxes. A tax cut for the rich, perhaps coupled with the elimination of some of their tax-code benefits, may be in the cards. A mostly symbolic gesture at best may be given to the middle-class. Do not expect a tax break if you are in the middle class.
4) Immigration Reform. I believe that the new president could create a pathway to citizenship for legal immigrants and a pathway home for illegal immigrants, not so much by immigration reform as immigration enforcement. By enforcing current immigration laws, he could claim that a physical wall between the U.S. and Mexico is no longer necessary or that only limited sections of the wall need to be built.
As for denying entry by race or religion, or a registry, there are laws on the books blocking such actions. It seems more likely that the new administration will seek denial of immigration by country for a period of time.
5) Education. With the student loan crisis, many Americans place themselves into decades of debt for a college education. The bubble may burst during the next administration and force the hand of Congress and the White House to act. If there is no change, rich and poor will continue to NOT pay for college. But the middle-class will continue to endure 20-year and 30-year education loan debts.
The new president has not addressed the issue of for-profit or proprietary colleges, which account for an outsized percentage of student debt, primarily funded by federal tax dollars, and an outsized percentage of loan defaults.
As for pre-college education, Trump proposes spending $20 billion to allow for “school choice” the ability for families to use federal dollars to be applied to the school of choice, be it a charter, magnet, private or public school, says CNN Politics. He will support vouchers for students who attend private schools. His choice of Betsy DeVos, a strong school voucher advocate, for Secretary of Education, makes this clear.
5) National Defense. Expect little change here, as the American military-industrial complex is a machine. NATO and Europe may be asked to pay more for their defense as Trump has said time and again.
6) Foreign Affairs. Seemingly “isolationist,” he might steer clear of most military engagements, leaving the combatants on their own. Keep in mind that American presidents generally begin their terms dealing with issues at home while the Congress is cooperative, and then turn their attention toward international affairs at the end of their presidency.
The Middle East
The new president may very well cede Syria to the Russians, as well as parts of Ukraine and the Crimea. As for Iran, they may be held to a higher standard of nuclear development restrictions and verification. Trump has repeatedly expressed opposition to the current agreement.
The current instability in Turkey, a military coup and civil unrest, means that that our forward-most nuclear weapons are surrounded by the military of an unstable nation. Military news website Military.com said, “The friction between the U.S. and Turkey has extended to Turkey’s Incirlik Air Base which has been vital to the U.S. air campaign against ISIS in Syria and northern Iraq.” It is the opinion of many military insiders that these weapons and the American military base in Turkey will need to be more effectively secured.
Asia
The new president has called on China to do more to control the North Korean dictatorship, and in particular, its development of nuclear weapons. Time Magazine said, “China is Pyongyang’s only friendly nation of note and accounts for 90% of its trade.” North Korea may find greater pressure from further trade sanctions and pressure from China, forcing them to change their nuclear stance.
Expect the President-Elect to try to use the “One China” doctrine as a bargaining chip in getting more military and trade concessions from China. Look at the extreme response China had to phone call from the Taiwanese leader to the president-elect. Expect the administration to seek concessions on China’s building of “military islands,” Chinese purchases of American companies and China-U.S. trade agreements, as the new president has purported throughout his election campaign.
7) Terrorism. Combating ISIS will be a priority. The new president might just go for the jugular against ISIS. According to USA Today, “Military chiefs are prepared to give [President] Donald Trump the options he wants to intensify the fight against the Islamic State, including the possibility of granting commanders greater leeway to use secret cyber warfare and space weapons.” Terrorism thrives in failed nation-states. With much of Syria and Iraq outside of the control of a central government, terrorist groups will continue to have a base of operations. Here the new president may find an “ally of opportunity” in Russia’s Vladimir Putin, with the U.S. securing a strong central government in Iraq and the Russians securing a strong central government in Syria.
8) LBGT Issues. As a New Yorker, it seems that he might be OK with current laws that protect the rights of the LBGT community. He is not, however, likely to seek new protections.
9) Pro-Choice/Right to Life. This issue comes up every Presidential election-cycle, with no change in the federal law, regardless of who is in the White House. It is a Supreme Court and constitutional issue, but it is the president who appoints Supreme Court justices. Trump says that he is “pro-life,” so he will likely nominate a “pro-life” justice. But he has voiced little interest in a change in Roe v. Wade. Regardless, the decision is in the Supreme Court’s hands and not his.
10) Second Amendment/Gun Control. “The Second Amendment to our Constitution is clear. The right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed upon. Period.” So says the new president’s position statement. The document goes on to call the amendment “America’s first freedom.” Expect no new initiatives on gun regulations.
11) Climate Change/Global Warming. The incoming president met with climate change activist, actor Leonardo DiCaprio, to discuss global warming. His daughter Ivanka recently met with former Vice President Al Gore, another climate change thought leader. These meetings may indicate that the President-Elect is willing to consider opinions that human-caused climate change is a threat to humanity.
12) Healthcare. Mr. Trump told The Wall Street Journal he would consider “amending” the Affordable Care Act (ACA) instead of repealing it, but that’s up to Congress. But he also said the ACA aka Obamacare would be repealed and replaced, claiming, “We’re going to do it simultaneously — it’ll be just fine.” More recently, he said he would guarantee that everyone kept their coverage. But again, that’s up to Congress. He has expressed interest in keeping the provisions that ensure coverage for those with pre-existing conditions and allowing children to stay on their parent’s policies under age 26. Again, up to Congress.
The Reality
A new president was sworn in and took office on January 20, 2017. So we’ll find out soon enough which of these predictions are accurate.
Dr. Donald C. Shingler is a social entrepreneur/civic activist, executive director of the nonprofit Cleveland Retail Commission and CEO of Fashion Week Cleveland. Dr. Shingler graduated from the School of Dental Medicine at Case Western Reserve University and received his BS in biology and psychology from the Ohio State University. He owns the cosmetic dental practice Smile Art Center of La Place, located in Beachwood, Ohio. He is a reservist in the U.S. Air Force. Major Shingler is attached to the 910th Medical Squadron at the Youngstown Air Reserve Station. For nearly 20 years, Dr. Shingler has resided in downtown Cleveland.
One Response to “What the Next Presidency Might Look Like by Donald C. Shingler”
Kevin Burke
Great article!